How to Survive Anything -- FPC sermon excerpt

Have you ever encountered a black swan?

I don’t mean a bird, but instead a low-probability, high-impact event. A wildfire is a black swan event, as is an avalanche, a tsunami, or a gun-battle in a developing country. These unexpected disasters are called “black swans” because they are outside the realm of regular expectations. Until the 17th century, everyone assumed that all swans were white, because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.

But then, in Australia, the unexpected appeared: Black swans. The impossible suddenly became possible.

So, what do you do if you encounter a black swan event? National Geographic Adventure magazine has a very helpful article called “How to Survive (Almost) Anything” (August-September 2009). I thought this would be a good Father’s Day sermon, for all of our adventure-loving dads.

For example, if you are suddenly faced with whizzing bullets in a foreign country, keep your head down and make your way to the airport or the embassy. And if you get captured and held for ransom, try to relax and go along with their demands. Security experts say that 95 percent of international kidnappings are resolved with a payoff.

And how about if you are on the beach, and you notice that the water is receding unusually fast? Run for high ground or a tall building as fast as you can, because a tsunami is coming. If you get caught in the water, ride it out by keeping your feet up and in front of you, as though you were riding a water slide.

And how about a wildfire caused by a lightning strike? Abandon your synthetic backpack and clothes — they will melt in the heat. Head for the nearest body of water or clearing, while covering your nose and mouth with a wet cotton cloth.

The good news is that you can survive almost anything.

Now it’s true that most of us will never face black swans like wildfires, tsunamis, or overseas gun-battles. But there are plenty of low-probability, high-impact events that can threaten our physical, mental, and spiritual health. The loss of a job. A cancer diagnosis. Separation from a spouse. Failure in an academic program. Betrayal by a friend.

They are low-probability, thank goodness. But high impact.

So what are some of the skills that we can develop to survive the black swans that come our way? The story of the prophet Elijah from the Old Testament book of First Kings gives us a list of things to do — and not to do — if we want to survive.