Fourth and One -- FPC sermon excerpt
The football season is upon us, and the Washington Redskins are playing in the Hall of Fame Game, against the Indianapolis Colts.
What will they do if they find themselves in a fourth and one situation? Fourth down, with one yard to go.
Well, if history is any indication, they’ll punt.
Last fall, the Redskins were playing the New York Jets. With just over five minutes to play, they found themselves on their own 23-yard line facing a fourth and one situation.
The Redskins, who were ahead by just three points, chose to do what teams normally do in such a situation: They played it safe and punted, instead of trying to go for the first down.
Well, the Jets stormed back and kicked a field goal, tying the game and sending it into overtime. It took another field goal, a 46-yarder by the Redskins kicker, to enable Washington to emerge with a victory.
Which brings me to the question: What should they have done on that fourth and one?
According to The Washington Post (November 5, 2007), an economist at the University of California has come to believe that football teams are far too conservative in fourth-down situations. In an extensive analysis, he found that teams that take the risk, and go for the first down, end up winning more often than losing. His recommendation would be for teams to regularly go for it, instead of punting. The numbers indicate that this is the optimal path to football victory.
Unfortunately, football teams tend to play it safe, even when this hurts their chances for a win. And so do many of us. We may say we have a goal and are willing to do everything we can to achieve it, but then our behavior departs from the best path to achieve that goal.
Instead of going for it, we punt.
In Genesis 32:22-31, Jacob wrestles with a mysterious divine being next to the Jabbok River. It’s a fourth-and-one situation for Jacob, but he doesn’t punt. No, he wrestles with the mystery man until daybreak, and he receives a blessing.
What will they do if they find themselves in a fourth and one situation? Fourth down, with one yard to go.
Well, if history is any indication, they’ll punt.
Last fall, the Redskins were playing the New York Jets. With just over five minutes to play, they found themselves on their own 23-yard line facing a fourth and one situation.
The Redskins, who were ahead by just three points, chose to do what teams normally do in such a situation: They played it safe and punted, instead of trying to go for the first down.
Well, the Jets stormed back and kicked a field goal, tying the game and sending it into overtime. It took another field goal, a 46-yarder by the Redskins kicker, to enable Washington to emerge with a victory.
Which brings me to the question: What should they have done on that fourth and one?
According to The Washington Post (November 5, 2007), an economist at the University of California has come to believe that football teams are far too conservative in fourth-down situations. In an extensive analysis, he found that teams that take the risk, and go for the first down, end up winning more often than losing. His recommendation would be for teams to regularly go for it, instead of punting. The numbers indicate that this is the optimal path to football victory.
Unfortunately, football teams tend to play it safe, even when this hurts their chances for a win. And so do many of us. We may say we have a goal and are willing to do everything we can to achieve it, but then our behavior departs from the best path to achieve that goal.
Instead of going for it, we punt.
In Genesis 32:22-31, Jacob wrestles with a mysterious divine being next to the Jabbok River. It’s a fourth-and-one situation for Jacob, but he doesn’t punt. No, he wrestles with the mystery man until daybreak, and he receives a blessing.
posted by Henry Brinton | 7:05 AM
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